Syria after Bashar al-Assad's Fall - Changes and Challenges

Abstract

The Syrian conflict, which began in 2011, has evolved into one of the longest and most devastating wars in the modern history of the Middle East. The situation has been characterized by political complexities, ethno-sectarian confrontations, large-scale forced migration, and the involvement of external powers, resulting in a transformative crisis for the country. By the end of 2024, the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the subsequent transfer of power to Ahmad al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani) and the transitional government marked a new chapter not only in Syria’s domestic affairs but also within the regional international system. This article examines the key directions that shape the country’s political reality in the post-Assad era.

The formation of the new government and sources of legitimacy present two main tasks for Al Sharaa’s administration during the power transition: first, to consolidate legitimate authority among various social groups; and second, to restore state institutions and ensure their effective functioning.

The new leader, previously linked to Islamist military-political structures, endeavored to shift the focus from armed resistance to political governance. His primary sources of legitimacy stemmed from two factors: external support, evidenced by the recognition of the transitional government by Western nations; and internal agreements, notably the historic deal reached with Kurdish factions. Nevertheless, Syria’s political agenda continues to highlight the challenges of state consolidation.